Crystal Ball

And So It Begins ...

December 2, 2019
Mike MorelandBy Mike Moreland
VP - Investments

One of the constants of the investment world is the Year End Forecast. Ouija boards, tea leaves and, in some cases, Magic 8-Balls appear from desk drawers to help discern what lies ahead for the economy and financial markets. Here’s a sample quote received last week from a global money management firm:

“We do not expect an economic or a market slump, though we can’t completely rule it out either…”

Well.  That settles that.

Gentle sarcasm aside, year end forecasts are important. First, they require a manager to present a cogent and understandable thesis. Second, in turn, the manager should lay out an investment strategy to capitalize on his or her expectations.

From these, clients have the opportunity to judge by more than just numbers. Does the outlook make sense? Are action steps consistent with the views expressed? And, most important, is the client comfortable with what is said and planned? When you see a forecast, use it as a tool to evaluate your relationship with your investment manager.

“When you see a forecast, use it as a tool to evaluate your relationship with your investment manager.”

And always ask, “What if you’re wrong?” Outlooks are, at best, imprecise. A good manager will show how diversification and attention to valuation help control risk. Most important, a good manager understands your goals and builds a portfolio to match your risk tolerance and return expectations.

Our outlook will be distributed closer to year end. Read it, challenge us, and let’s work together for your success. It matters to you, and to us.

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About the Author

Michael Moreland

Mike Moreland is Vice President of Investment Services at Security National Bank. With more than 40 years of Wealth Management experience at SNB, and his Sioux City roots, Mike has a rich background in finance and Siouxland.