Like Baseball, Even the Best Market Predictions Get Curveballs
March 30, 2026
By Mike Moreland
Retired Vice President - Investments
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future."
This quote, usually attributed to 20th century physicist Niels Bohr, is often also sourced to Yankee Hall-of-Famer Yogi Berra.
While Bohr is the more likely source of this version, it is the beginning of baseball season and we can take a minute to remember Yogi and his ‘Yogi-isms’. A couple of my favorites – when a teammate asked if Yogi wanted to go to a certain restaurant for dinner, Yogi replied, ‘No one goes there anymore – it’s too crowded.’ And, when Yogi was asked if he wanted his pizza cut into six slices or eight, he responded, ‘Six – I don’t think I can eat eight.’
What Will Become of the Chaos?
But on to more serious matters. The first quarter ended in a more chaotic and uncertain condition than anyone predicted just a few short weeks ago. We’re all aware of the proximate causes. What are the effects – short and long term?
Our outlook is discussed in this quarter’s Economic & Market Commentary. In a quick summary, its main points are as follows:
- Oil prices above $100 per barrel will place additional stress on discretionary consumer spending. Economic activity – already characterized as ‘K-shaped’ – will likely continue in this form at a somewhat slower overall pace.
- Inflation will tick up as higher energy prices flow through the broad economy. We’ve already seen this at the pump – other sectors dependent on oil inputs (goods transportation, etc.) will follow.
- The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current posture well into the year. No rate cuts in the near term.
From this framework, the two major questions are: First, will the inflation and economic impacts of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran be permanent or transitory? Second, specific to our work for you, what are expectations for the financial markets?
We believe the inflation, economic, and market impacts of the war will be longer-lasting than many expect, but ultimately transitory. The first quarter was a correction in an ongoing positive market, events history shows occur unpredictably but often.
While we build portfolios based on expectations, a key question we ask ourselves is, ‘What if we’re wrong?’ This is where our fundamental philosophy takes over. We are risk-averse by nature and training, and we work to minimize downside risk while taking part in rising markets. This is reflected in both broad diversification and attention to valuation.
In the short term, there are no guarantees – losses will occur. Over the long term, prudently structured portfolios help provide a smooth path to success. Reach out to an advisor today with questions. Our pledge to you is to work – diligently and carefully – to achieve your goals.
Play Ball!